Isn’t August supposed to be a quiet news time when many people are on vacation?

• The White House has said they are planning to rename the Department of Defense as the Department of War. Likelihood: Unknown. Technically, Congress has the power to do this, not the executive branch. This shouldn’t impact defense stocks.
• The White House wants to take an ownership stake in defense contractors that it gives contracts to. Likelihood: Possible but unlikely. For all the efforts by the DoD over the years to ensure fair competition in bidding, this would be a big step back and would seem to open the door for a lot of perceived, if not real, scandals. Defense firms don’t need the cash (like Intel does) but they could be pressured to accept it if it means not being blocked from future contracts. Would that dilute existing shareholders or just reduce dividends? Honestly, there is no precedent in the US for this.
• The Pentagon has quietly blocked Ukraine’s plan for Long Range missile strikes on Russia – Wall Street Journal. Opinion: If the US truly wants to force Russia to accept a ceasefire, having damage inside their territory might be a one way to convince them peace is the preferred option.
• Brazil’s president said the war between Russia and Ukraine is likely to end soon. Opinion: Unlikely. The war ends in one of three ways: (1) Russia decides it will declare victory (whether real or not) and Ukraine decides to “regroup and fight another day”; (2) Internal economic issues inside Russia force Putin (or someone else inside) to withdraw completely from Ukraine; or (3) Ukraine is provided the weapons and the ability to use them however and wherever they decide, causing internal forces inside Russia to remove Putin and his allies. Right now, none of these three options seems reasonable although economic analysts think #2 is gaining traction.
• European military-industrial output supporting Ukraine now outpaces the US. Analysis: US military-industrial suppliers continue to ramp up activity to support this effort, sometimes via multi-billion contracts from European government and sometimes in partnership with European partners.