24 June 2025 – Has war in the Middle East ever actually ended?

I think it’ll be quiet for a bit. Iran needs time to regroup and figure out which of its leaders are still alive and Israel doesn’t want to make Trump unhappy, look weak, and potentially try to withhold military aid as retribution. That said, at the first sign that (a) it is learned that the nuclear facilities were not as badly damaged as hoped; (b) a “rogue” missile from Iran or one of its proxies like the Houthis targets Israel; (c) a related or unrelated terrorism action inside Israel or an assassination attempt is made—and the call to restart military action begins anew. Another wildcard would be if Russian and/or North Korean threats to nuclear arm Iran are proven true, then the need for a regime change in Iran to more moderate leadership becomes a high priority.